App Insights

COVID-19 Spurs Mass Migration Out Of San Francisco

amanbansal — Mon, 01 Mar 2021 23:30:02 +0000

COVID-19 Spurs Mass Migration Out Of San Francisco

Aman Bansal, Flurry Analyst

amanbansal Mon, 03/01/2021 - 15:30

2021-03-02

Tags

App Insights

coronavirus

When the stay-at-home orders were first introduced in March 2020, few industries were as well equipped for the transition as the technology industry in Silicon Valley. Employees at Google, Apple, Facebook, and hundreds of other tech companies were used to video conferencing and connecting to the office via virtual private networks long before COVID-19 forced other workers to do so. Fast forward about a year and most technology employees still are working remotely. And with many companies considering more permanent work-from-home policies, many technology workers may soon have the option to forgo expensive rents and mortgages by working from anywhere. For this report, Flurry analyzed the migration pattern of people leaving San Francisco during the COVID-19 pandemic for other parts of the United States.

Flurry Analytics is used in over 1 million mobile applications, providing insights from 2 billion mobile devices per month. For this analysis, we created a cohort of mobile users who executed the majority of their mobile sessions in San Francisco during January 2020, We then assumed the users of these devices resided in San Francisco. Next, we confirmed we could accurately follow device location at a city-level over the 12-month period to determine how many remained in San Francisco and how many chose to face the pandemic elsewhere. Now, in a major metropolitan city such as San Francisco, it’s normal for a certain number of residents to leave because of employment, family commitments, or other preferences that attract them to other destinations. Based on our analysis, 13% of our cohort left San Francisco in February 2020, which sets the baseline. Let’s begin by reviewing the movement of San Francisco residents over the last 12 months.

In the chart above, we show the percentage of San Francisco residents that moved to different parts of the country beginning from March 2020 through January 2021. In March 2020, when California first announced stay-at-home orders, 13% of San Francisco residents left, in line with the February 2020 baseline. This means the initial stay-at-home orders did not immediately drive people away. However, between March and September, the percentage of people who left San Francisco skyrocketed to 29%.

In the early days of the quarantine, the Midwest (4%) and Texas (3%) were the most popular destinations. New York became a more popular destination during the summer months, whereas the Southeast has consistently increased in popularity over time. Other regions within California have also gained in popularity as the pandemic wore on, with people possibly exchanging their city dwelling for a more suburban--yet still Californian--lifestyle. And by January 2021, more than 9% of San Francisco residents left the city, but remained in the state, making the rest of California the most popular destination. And it doesn’t take much research to understand why. As of January 2021, the average home price in San Francisco was $1.4 million, whereas the average home price in California was $625,000.

By September 2020, 29% of our cohort had left San Francisco. Since September, however, net migration has remained relatively stable, increasing only one percentage point to 30% in January 2021. The rise up through September might be due to several reasons. First, school season starts in September, and most families with children likely wanted to be settled somewhere at the start of the school year. Second, as the weather starts to get colder after September across most of the country, the prospect of leaving San Francisco’s temperate climate might have seemed less enticing. Lastly, it’s possible that those who felt mobile enough to relocate were able to do so during the first six months of the pandemic.

Let’s next look at the states to which San Francisco residents relocated as of January 2021.

In the chart above, we visualize the migration of the 30% of San Francisco residents to other parts of the country, as of January 2021. As we mentioned earlier, relocating within California is by far the most popular destination for people leaving San Francisco during the pandemic, with 9.2% of San Francisco residents leaving the city but staying within the state. After California, the most popular states are New York (3.5%), New Jersey (1.5%), South Carolina (1.5%), Texas (1.2%), Washington (0.9%) and Florida (0.9%). These states all offer job opportunities, cultural centers, and more affordable housing, with the exception of Manhattan. Texas was a popular destination for Californians fed up with the high taxes and cost of doing business before COVID-19 hit. Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk famously left California, fed up with regulations, in favor of Austin and is rumored to be contemplating a relocation of Tesla’s headquarters. And Florida is the only state, other than Alaska, with more coastline than California.

While many destination states represent some of the country’s more populated states, the distribution across the Midwest is eye-opening. One out of six people who left San Francisco during the pandemic relocated to the Midwest. Known for “friendly people, cheap land and a stress-free lifestyle” this transition from San Francisco’s technology hub to the Midwest represents a significant lifestyle shift that may be welcome to many overly-worked and stressed-out San Franciscans.

What remains to be seen is whether these moves are temporary or permanent. Did San Francisco’s tech community leave to spend the lockdown with family and friends, with intentions to eventually return? Or did they seize an opportunity to find more affordable housing while maintaining a high income due to the high cost of living in San Francisco? And the biggest question may be just how supportive these seemingly generous work-from-anywhere policies actually will be when the United States recovers from COVID-19. Make sure you follow us on the Flurry blog, on Twitter and LinkedIn for the latest mobile industry analyses.

iPhone 12 Launch Spurs Rapid Adoption of 5G Smartphones

amanbansal — Tue, 22 Dec 2020 16:34:17 +0000

iPhone 12 Launch Spurs Rapid Adoption of 5G Smartphones

By: Aman Bansal, Flurry Analyst

amanbansal Tue, 12/22/2020 - 08:34

2020-12-22

Tags

App Insights

Apple

Samsung

2020 has surfaced the importance that technology plays in society. Since the beginning of the pandemic, digital technology has enabled people to work remotely, attend classes, play social games, shop, leverage virtual assistants, and more. All told, the pandemic has accelerated digital transformation by several years and will endure long after the pandemic is over.

Will 5G Meet Expectations?

As consumers expect better digital experiences, 5G wireless opens up new possibilities. With ultrafast speeds, seamless connectivity and negligible latency, 5G can improve multiplayer cloud gaming, shopping with augmented reality, real-time video collaboration, and so much more. 5G will accelerate app development around areas such as cloud computing, AR/VR, IoT, and artificial intelligence.

Despite this potential, 5G adoption requires the build-out of infrastructure and compatible devices. But 2020 saw the world’s two largest smartphone manufacturers, Samsung and Apple, release several 5G-enabled devices. In this report, we’ll review 5G smartphone adoption trends as well as the OEMs that are helping bring the technology to consumers.

5G-Enabled Device Adoption Explodes

Flurry Analytics is used in over 1 million mobile applications, providing insights from 2 billion mobile devices per month. Let’s start by looking at the number of new 5G-enabled smartphones entering the market each month in the past two years.

In the chart above, we show the number of new smartphone activations per month starting from December 2018 when the first commercial 5G network services in the world launched in South Korea. All the spikes in device activations, seen as bumps on the chart, correspond to the release of a new 5G-enabled device. The first time a significant number of 5G-enabled smartphones entered the market was when Samsung released their Galaxy S10 5G phones in April 2019, followed by more 5G-enabled flagship smartphones in August 2019, March 2020, and August 2020. Apple joined the 5G bandwagon notoriously late in October 2020 with its iPhone 12 series, and since then the number of 5G-enabled smartphones in consumers’ hands has skyrocketed.

While the percentage of smartphones in the market is still relatively small at 1.7% as of November 2020, the number of monthly activations have increased by 1671% from last year. We expect the adoption rate to continue its sharp increase in the coming weeks as people purchase the latest and greatest smartphones during the holiday season. If the above trend is any indication, 2021 will likely be a banner year for 5G as expected improvements in infrastructure and broader penetration of 5G-enabled devices will meet the critical mass needed for app developers to design next-generation user experiences.

Apple Poised to Overtake Samsung as The Top 5G OEM Next Year

Let’s next look at the market share of 5G-enabled smartphones by OEM, and how it is changing over time.

In the chart above, we look at the current market share as well as the share of new device activations as of December 2020. This includes all countries in the world except Europe and China, due to GDPR compliance and lack of Android data respectively. Samsung constitutes 61% of all 5G-enabled devices in the market today, whereas Apple’s share is just 30%, followed by a distant LG at 4%. Samsung was amongst the first OEMs to release 5G-enabled devices in early 2019, which provided it a solid head start. However, Apple is taking a majority share of new activations (63%) thanks to the recent release of its iPhone 12 series, and appears to be on track to overtake Samsung to become the top 5G OEM in the world in the year ahead.

Network Coverage Matters

According to a report from the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), China has a two-year lead over the U.S. in terms of 5G infrastructure deployment. Since 5G technology has been available to the public for a longer time in China compared to the U.S., we looked at iPhone 12 adoption in both countries during the launch week of Apple’s first ever 5G-enabled device.

In the chart above, the bars represent the number of new devices activated during their respective launch week. The gray bars represent sales in the U.S. and the blue bars represent sales in China. Historically, iPhone sales in China have lagged behind those in the U.S. during the launch week for iPhone XR and iPhone 11. However, iPhone 12 sales in China exceeded those in the U.S., and we believe this is due to 5G technology being more top of mind for Chinese consumers given the more mature 5G ecosystem in the country.

As we head into 2021, we are excited by the possibilities of 5G technology, and what that means for the mobile ecosystem. Follow us on the Flurry Blog, Twitter and LinkedIn to find out about interesting trends in the mobile space.

iPhone is a trademark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.

Samsung and Samsung Galaxy are trademarks of Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. in the United States or other countries.

The Flurry blog (https://www.flurry.com/blog/) is an independent blog and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Apple Inc. or Samsung. Flurry is a part of Verizon Media.

Smartphone Market Profile: Southeast Asia

LisaMoshfegh — Thu, 29 Oct 2020 16:21:05 +0000

Smartphone Market Profile: Southeast Asia

By Aman Bansal, Flurry Analyst

LisaMoshfegh Thu, 10/29/2020 - 09:21

2020-10-29

Tags

App Insights

Android

ios

With 8.5% of the world’s population, Southeast Asia is a culturally and ethnically diverse region and one of the fastest growing smartphone markets in the world. It’s made up of several countries, anchored by Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populated country. In this report, we’ll analyze the current smartphone landscape in Southeast Asia.

Flurry Analytics is used in over 1 million mobile applications worldwide, providing insights from 2 billion devices per month. Let’s begin by reviewing the distribution of mobile devices across Southeast Asia by country.

In the chart above, we list each country in Southeast Asia by its percentage of smartphone users. Indonesia accounts for 45% of all smartphone users in Southeast Asia and 40% of its total population, followed by the Philippines (16% of smartphone users, 16% of population), Thailand (12% of smartphone users, 10% of population) and Vietnam (11% of smartphone users, 14% of population).

As seen in the chart above, the Southeast Asia region saw a strong increase in device activations, growing 20% YoY. This was primarily driven by the larger markets such as Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand that continued to grow despite their huge existing user base. In the case of Indonesia, a 25% growth rate for a country of 274 million people is a significant shift. Among the reasons growth is so high across these countries is low existing smartphone penetration, which stands at 31%, 34%, and 40%, respectively. Their relative market sizes and growth rates provide lucrative opportunities for app developers to monetize and grow their own user bases. Singapore’s 28% decline in mobile device activations is likely due to their extremely high smartphone penetration rate of 90%. Based on our analysis, their device activations peaked in 2018 and have declined each year thereafter.

Next, let’s review the platform preference in Southeast Asia.

In the chart above, we list each country by its share of Android devices compared to iOS devices. Brunei, the least populated country in Southeast Asia, has the highest share of iOS devices at 65%. Indonesia, the most populated country in the region, has the highest share of Android devices at 96%. While the average Android share in Southeast Asia is 86%, it varies considerably amongst different countries. This wide variation speaks to the diversity within the region which app developers should keep in mind as they vie for success in these markets.

Next, let’s take a look at market share by smartphone manufacturers in Southeast Asia.

In the chart above, we list the top 5 smartphone manufacturers in Southeast Asia as of September 2020. We then combine the remaining manufacturers into “Others,” represented by the gray slice of the pie. Samsung is the clear leader controlling 34% of all smartphones in the Southeast Asian market, followed by OPPO at 18%, Apple at 14%, vivo at 13%, and Xiaomi at 8%. From 2019 to 2020, both Samsung and vivo gained market share, by 1 and 2 percentage points, respectively. Meanwhile, OPPO and Apple remained flat, while Xiaomi lost 1 percentage point.

Finally, let’s review the most popular device models in Southeast Asia.

In the chart above, we list the 10 most popular smartphone devices in Southeast Asia as of September 2020 by the number of active devices in the market. We list OPPO models in blue, Samsung models in orange, and vivo models in green. OPPO phones feature prominently as amongst the most popular smartphones in the region, taking 3 out of the top 5 spots, followed by Samsung phones taking 5 out of the top 10 spots, and vivo taking the remaining 2 spots. Notably missing from this list is Apple, which despite being the third largest OEM in the region, did not figure amongst the most popular devices.

Southeast Asia’s low smartphone penetration rate combined with a large population and high new device adoption rates make it an enticing market for both app developers and device manufacturers. We’ll continue to analyze smartphone markets around the world. Make sure you subscribe to the Flurry blog and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn for more country profiles and other market analyses.

Galaxy is a trademark of Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. in the United States or other countries.

The Flurry blog (https://www.flurry.com/blog/) is an independent blog and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Samsung.

A Billion Reasons to Understand App Usage on Tablets

LisaMoshfegh — Thu, 22 Oct 2020 16:28:01 +0000

A Billion Reasons to Understand App Usage on Tablets

By Lisa Moshfegh, Product Marketing, and Aman Bansal, Flurry Analyst

LisaMoshfegh Thu, 10/22/2020 - 09:28

2020-10-22

Tags

App Insights

tablets

Over 1 billion tablets are in use globally, according to Statista, with a penetration rate forecasted to surpass 20% of the world’s population within a couple of years. While smartphones and laptops each have higher penetration rates, the tablet still holds a unique position in the market as an in-between form factor. In particular, it’s known for media consumption, gaming and productivity usage such as email and document editing. Earlier this year, we reported that as Americans quarantined in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, tablet usage increased meaningfully. Given the growth in tablet penetration and usage, this report takes a look at global tablet trends with a focus on Apple and Samsung tablet usage, which combined make up 80% of the tablet market.

Flurry Analytics, owned by Verizon Media, is used in 1 million mobile applications, providing insights into 2 billion smart devices worldwide. Let’s begin by reviewing new device activations for both tablets and smartphones since February 2020.

In the chart above, we show the percent change in new tablet and smartphone activations compared to the baseline of February 2020. February represents the last “normal” month without quarantines, lockdowns, or stay-at-home orders. The blue line represents the change in new tablets activated, and the orange line represents the change in new smartphones activated.

Most of March was unaffected by the pandemic, which explains why both smartphones and tablets performed at or above the baseline. Tablet activations increased by 7% in March which we believe was driven by the release of Apple’s 4th Generation iPad Pro. By April, however, much of the world was under some version of a quarantine, working from home increased, and students attended school remotely. In the first two months of the quarantine, tablets did better than smartphones in terms of new device activations, but later fell as economies began re-opening.

The COVID-19 Tablet Surge

Tablets fared better than smartphones during the first several months of the pandemic, up through June. We suspect that many people frontloaded their tablet purchases during quarantine since the tablet offers a larger screen and is not considered as portable a device as the smartphone. Given the choice of screens, and knowing that they would remain at home indefinitely, we believe tablets enjoyed a period of increased demand.

Let’s now take a look at how tablet usage varied by application category.

In the chart above, we break down the share of app sessions by category for both tablets and smartphones. Tablets are represented by the thinner blue bar and smartphones by the thicker gray bar. When the blue bar is longer than the gray bar, sessions over index on tablets, and when the gray bar is longer than the blue bar, sessions over index on smartphones. The column on the right shows the percentage point difference in app category usage between tablets and smartphones.

The three categories with the greatest usage on both tablets and smartphones are Productivity & Utilities, Gaming, and Social. On tablets, the proportion of app sessions on Productivity & Utilities and Gaming are greater than that of smartphones. On smartphones, the share of Social app usage is greater.

The iPad Gaming Machine

The greatest usage difference occurs in Gaming apps, where the share of sessions on tablets is twice that of smartphones, 16% on tablets versus 8% on smartphones. This trend is even more dramatic when we compare Apple’s iPad and Samsung’s Galaxy Tab—the two largest tablet models in the market in terms of market share. The share of gaming on iPads was more than three times that of Galaxy Tabs, indicating consumers' strong preference for iPad as a gaming device. This might be because processing power and display quality both play a key role in the gaming experience, and iPads are generally considered to be superior in both aspects.

Tablets for Education

Overall, we found that the frequency of use (sessions per day) is 20% higher on smartphones compared to tablets. This makes sense because smartphones are always within arm’s reach, making it a more automatic go-to device for digital activity. However, in a few categories, such as Education, the frequency of use was higher by 24% on tablets compared to smartphones, likely due to the increase in distance learning.

Next, let’s review the age of devices in the market for both tablets and smartphones. In other words, how long do people hold onto their tablets?

In the chart above, we present iPhone and iPad market share based on the age of the device model. We chose to analyze Apple smartphones and tablets because there are far fewer Apple models in the market, which shows us a clearer picture.

Tablet Hoarding

A key insight from this analysis is that users hold onto their iPads much longer than iPhones. More than 50% of iPads are 6 years old and older, while only 9% of iPhones are used for that long. Apple tablet longevity is likely influenced by better battery performance. The battery size in tablets is much larger and therefore don’t require recharging nearly as frequently. Fewer charging cycles means reduced battery degradation. Additionally, tablets aren’t taken out of the home nearly as frequently as smartphones and likely suffer far less wear and tear.

Vintage Tablets

Comparing the average install base age of iPads to iPhones, tablets are older. Only 13% of the iPads in the market are less than 2 years old compared to 30% of the iPhones, meaning people replace their smartphones more frequently than they replace their tablets. The cost to purchase a new tablet likely plays a role with an iPad costing about the same as a higher end iPhone. And since tablets are often considered a secondary device while the smartphone is considered a primary device, tablets are more of a “nice to have” purchase. Calculating the correlation between consumer spending and tablet share per country, we found a moderately high positive correlation (+0.65) exists, meaning that countries with higher spending power, and therefore more disposable income, are more likely to have a higher share of tablet ownership.

For the last chart, let’s review which tablet screen sizes are preferred most.

In this chart, we compare screen size for Apple’s iPad and Samsung’s Galaxy Tab in 2019 and 2020. While small and medium sized tablets clearly dominate the market for both Apple and Samsung, the share of larger screens has increased year over year for both manufacturers.

Bigger Screens

As smartphones continue to increase in size, it’s possible that people feel compelled to purchase larger tablets for a more differentiated experience. Additionally, as remote learning continues in many school districts due to COVID-19, parents might also be investing in larger tablets for their kids' education. Another trend driving the adoption of larger tablets is likely direct replacement of laptops as people increasingly spend more time on app-based experiences and web-browsing becomes more mobile-friendly. Portable keyboards for tablets make the case to switch from laptops even stronger.

To further illustrate the shift to larger screens, all three Apple iPad launches this year (iPad Pro, iPad Air and iPad) have screens larger than 10 inches, while six of the eight Galaxy Tabs had similarly large-sized screens. As phone screens sizes have been increasing, so too have tablet screen sizes. And the line has been blurring between larger phones and smaller tablets.

What tablets lack in broader market penetration, they make up for with better user experience for apps that benefit from a larger screen size, such as gaming and education. Tablets see higher relative usage especially as indoor devices for work, entertainment and creativity. And as people continue to remain indoors due to COVID-19, the tablet utility is increasing. We’ll continue to report on mobile trends across form factors. Make sure you subscribe to the Flurry blog, and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn to stay up-to-date on the latest analyses.

iPhone and iPad are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.

Samsung and Samsung Galaxy are trademarks of Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. in the United States and other countries.

The Flurry blog (https://www.flurry.com/blog/) is an independent blog and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Apple Inc. or Samsung.

Country Profile: The Brazilian Smartphone Market

LisaMoshfegh — Fri, 09 Oct 2020 20:59:09 +0000

Country Profile: The Brazilian Smartphone Market

By Aman Bansal, Analyst

LisaMoshfegh Fri, 10/09/2020 - 13:59

2020-10-07

Tags

App Insights

Brazil is the world’s 6th most populated country and 4th largest smartphone market, only behind China, India and the United States. As South America's largest country, Brazil’s population accounts for half of the continent. Combined with a 46% smartphone penetration rate, Brazil is an attractive market for both app developers and OEMs. In this report, we take a closer look at Brazil, one of the world’s top smartphone markets.

Flurry Analytics, owned by Verizon Media, is used by app developers in 1 million mobile applications, reaching 2 billion smartphones worldwide every month. To understand the size of Brazil’s smartphone market relative to South America, let’s review the current distribution of smartphone users across the continent.

In the chart above, we list the percent of active smartphones by country in South America. On the left, Brazil accounts for 61% of all smartphones in South America, which is higher than the 50% proportion of the population it accounts for. In addition, Brazil saw 13% growth year-over-year in new device activations compared to only 2.5% growth for all of South America combined. This above-average growth indicates that Brazilians are adopting smartphones at a faster rate than the rest of the continent.

Next, let’s review the platform preference in Brazil.

In the chart above we show the market share of Android versus iOS devices in 2019 and 2020. As of August 2020, 86% of the smartphones in Brazil ran on the Android operating system compared to 14% on Apple iOS. While Android is clearly the dominant leader, Apple has gained 2 percentage points since August 2019. We reported last month that Apple’s low cost device strategy is increasing sales in international markets, and Brazil topped the list with 123% year-over-year iPhone growth. In other words, Apple’s market share gain in Brazil could be part of a larger play at growing share in international markets.

Next, let’s take a look at the leading smartphone manufacturers in Brazil.

In the chart above, we list the top 5 smartphone manufacturers in Brazil as of August 2020. Samsung is the clear leader controlling 46% of all smartphones in the Brazilian market. It’s followed by Motorola at 22%, Apple at 14%, LG at 7% and Xiaomi at 5%. Apple and Xiaomi each gained market share year-over-year by 2 percentage points, while Samsung lost share by 1 percentage point.

Finally, let’s review the most popular device models in Brazil.

In the chart above, we list the 10 most popular smartphone devices in Brazil by active devices as of August 2020. We list Samsung models in blue, Apple models in orange, and Motorola models in gray. Samsung’s Galaxy J5 Prime, released in 2016, is the most common device, making up 3.2% of the market. Overall, Samsung’s Galaxy line holds 6 of the top 10 spots, showing Samsung’s control of the market.

Brazil is a key market for any OEM or app developer interested in South America. Its large population and relatively low smartphone penetration rate means that smartphone adoption and usage will likely continue to soar in the years ahead. With Apple’s recent success in the region with its lower priced devices, we expect OEMs to compete more on price to attract new device adoption. Make sure you subscribe to the Flurry blog and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn for more country profiles.

iPhone is a trademark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.

Samsung and Samsung Galaxy are trademarks of Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. in the United States or other countries.

The Flurry blog (https://www.flurry.com/blog/) is an independent blog and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Apple Inc. or Samsung.

Samsung and Apple Jockey for Smartphone Leadership with Contrasting Approaches

Anonymous — Wed, 30 Sep 2020 19:39:45 +0000

Samsung and Apple Jockey for Smartphone Leadership with Contrasting Approaches

By: Lisa Moshfegh, Product Marketing

Anonymous Wed, 09/30/2020 - 12:39

2020-09-30

Tags

App Insights

Apple

Samsung

Apple and Samsung together account for more than half of the world’s active smartphone install base, and are clearly the leaders of the OEM smartphone market. But if we take a closer look at how they each earn their market share, there are remarkable differences. This Flurry report takes a closer look at Apple versus Samsung market share, the number of products each company has in the market, top devices in the top 20 countries, and more.

Flurry Analytics, owned by Verizon Media, is used in over 1 million mobile applications that reach 2 billion smartphones per month. Unlike other market share analyses that rely on device shipments or sales, we measure devices currently active in the market, which we believe presents a more accurate picture of current market share. Let’s begin with an August 2020 snapshot of active devices by OEM.

In the chart above, we list device manufacturers by their share of global active devices. Note that due to insufficient data in China and Europe, we exclude those regions from our analysis. Starting on the left hand side, Samsung is the global leader with 33% of the world’s active smartphones, followed by Apple with 20%. Now let’s take a closer look at which devices are most popular.

In the chart above, we list the world’s top 15 active smartphones using data from August 2020. We color coded Apple devices in blue and Samsung devices in orange. You’ll note that all of the top 15 devices are made by Apple or Samsung, with Apple holding the top 10 spots. Expanding to the top 15, Samsung Galaxy devices begin to show up. Of the top 15, Apple has 12 devices, and Samsung 3. No other manufacturer’s device appeared on this list, reminding us how much these two OEMs control the world’s device base.

Considering the first two charts together, you’ll likely wonder how Samsung leads Apple in global market share by so much while holding very few of the top 15 devices. That could come down to how they approach product lines. Most years, Apple launches one or two iPhone models, sometimes with a few different device tiers as was the case with the iPhone 11 series. Samsung, on the other hand, launches as many as twenty different models in a given year to accommodate regional preferences and provide coverage across the price spectrum. To illustrate this, let’s do a side-by-side comparison of the market share versus the number of active devices between Apple iPhone and Samsung Galaxy lines.

On the left side of the chart above, we compare the market share of Apple’s iPhone line, in blue, to that of Samsung’s Galaxy line, in orange. And on the right side, we compare the number of active devices between the two product lines. The Samsung Galaxy line is 8 percentage points higher but achieves this market share with 457 devices compared to Apple iPhone’s 28 devices. Slowing down for a moment, this means that there are 16X more unique Galaxy models active around the world compared to Apple iPhone models. This fragmentation of Samsung devices helps explain how Samsung can have more total market share without having any of the top 10 active devices. With this approach, the Samsung Galaxy active user base is 1.4X that of Apple’s iPhone. While this translates to more market share, Samsung’s fragmentation could also raise questions about economies of scale and complexity in manufacturing, distribution and promotion.

Overall, the top 15 devices shown in our earlier chart represent 20% of the world’s smartphone market. The remaining 80% of the market comes from more than 8,000 device models offered by over 800 OEMs, illustrating how fragmented the entire industry is, Apple notwithstanding. Let’s next check out which devices are most popular in each country.

In the table above, we list the most popular device in each of the top 20 countries, excluding Europe and China due to insufficient data. Doing so reveals more OEMs and devices, with some regional trends appearing. In Latin America, including Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, Samsung’s Galaxy J line is the leader. In countries with higher income per capita, such as the United States, Canada and Japan, the iPhone takes the top spot. Notable Chinese manufacturers Huawei, Oppo and Xiaomi also appear on the list in parts of the Middle East, Asia and Latin America. And third party analyst reports show that both Huawei and Xiaomi have strong penetration in China.

Samsung’s approach of shipping many more device variants, and at lower price points, has resulted in capturing a third of the world’s smartphone install base. Apple, with fewer devices at higher price-points controls a one-fifth of the world’s install base. And while Samsung has a larger total footprint, Apple may enjoy economies of scale with longer production runs across fewer SKUs and more focused distribution in the world’s more developed economies. Either way, this competition leads to innovation and choice for consumers, further driving advances in smartphone technology and capabilities. Make sure you subscribe to the Flurry blog and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn to stay up-to-date on the latest smartphone adoption and usage trends.

iPhone is a trademark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.

Samsung and Samsung Galaxy are trademarks of Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. in the United States or other countries.

The Flurry blog (https://www.flurry.com/blog/) is an independent blog and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Apple Inc. or Samsung.

Will the iPhone 12 Convince Consumers to Replace Older iPhones?

Anonymous — Fri, 25 Sep 2020 17:54:23 +0000

Will the iPhone 12 Convince Consumers to Replace Older iPhones?

By: Peter Farago, Flurry GM and Aman Bansal, Flurry Analyst

Anonymous Fri, 09/25/2020 - 10:54

2020-09-25

Tags

Apple

App Insights

Product News

When Apple launches its annual line-up of new iPhones each Fall, it creates a surge in device adoption that spans the holiday season. Since the 2017 launch of the completely reimagined iPhone X, improvements to subsequent phones have been incremental, offering gains mainly related to the chipset, camera and screen. Since then Apple has released the iPhone XS and XR variants, the iPhone 11 line up and the 2nd Generation iPhone SE. The iPhone 12, coupled with 5G support, seems poised for stronger than usual uptake. For this analysis, we review the underlying drivers of iPhone device replacement including the relationship between consumer affluence and device age to understand how the upcoming iPhone 12 is positioned for this holiday season.

Device Obsolescence

A primary factor that drives new iPhone upgrades is device obsolescence. Apple doesn’t seem to explicitly plan this, but rapid innovation around both their hardware and operating systems results in reduced performance across older devices. Working against the growth of Apple’s annual iPhone unit sales is the fact that consumers are holding on to older devices longer. Today, consumers upgrade iPhones about every four years, compared to every three years back in 2018. For the iPhone 12 launch, those using the iPhone 7, launched in September 2016, or older models are candidates to upgrade their devices this cycle. We offer analysis on this below.

A Bigger Step

It’s speculated that Apple’s iPhone 12 will feature greater improvements than typical releases, which will likely increase device uptake. From a design standpoint, it likely re-introduces a smaller screen version as well as a metal, sharper-edged frame not seen since the iPhone 4. It will get a step up in speed while also better conserving battery life with the more energy-efficient A14 Bionic chip. There is a lot of buzz around the camera, with the largest phone versions rumored to feature a 64MP main camera, which will be a large improvement over the 12MP camera on the iPhone 11. Leaked rear glass pane images suggest that Apple will include a LiDAR scanner in the iPhone 12 Pro and Max that will help support augmented reality in some games and shopping apps, for example, by scanning local surroundings and superimposing various graphics into scenes.

A Shorter Window

Earlier this year, Apple CFO Luca Maestri announced that the iPhone 12 launch would be delayed, projecting that supply would be “available a few weeks later” than usual. That puts the launch most likely in the October timeframe, and the delay is likely due to Broadcom falling behind on producing the microprocessors for the iPhone 12. Apple has reportedly gone to great lengths to overcome production challenges related to COVID-19 and, unless delays are longer than expected, this should not be a major factor in its most important market, the United States, as new device uptake tends to ramp closer to Christmas.

The 5G Factor

Interest for the iPhone 12 appears greater due to the expectations that the device will be 5G-enabled, promising consumers access to seamless connectivity, faster speeds and next-generation user experiences. That said, tests have shown that 5G speeds are not pervasively available and sometimes actually slower than 4G speeds. The perception of a step-change in wireless technology could lead to a higher rate of iPhone upgrades this year, especially due to the pent-up demand created by Apple initially waiting to support 5G until this generation of iPhone. However, 5G may still be more of a future promise.

Affluence & Age of Device Base

Among the greatest factors in determining how well iPhone 12 may get adopted is simply whether consumers can afford them and what iPhone models they currently own. To better understand these factors, Flurry conducted some analysis, which we present below. Flurry Analytics, owned by Verizon Media, is used in over 1 million mobile applications worldwide, providing insights into more than 2 billion smartphones around the world. Take a look at the chart, and then we’ll go through it.

Fig. 1 Affluent Customers Upgrade iPhones More Frequently

In the chart above, we plotted countries by their consumer spending power and the age of their iPhone install base. On the x-axis we show how new the iPhone install base is. The farther to the right, the higher the percent of devices that are iPhone 8 or later models. On the y-axis we show the consumer spending power in a country, using household expenditure per capita. The higher up the chart, the more money is spent per household. The color of the dot relates to the size of a market, based on the monthly active iPhone devices Flurry detects in that market.

Let’s take a look at a couple of examples to get oriented. Represented by a dark green dot, the U.S. is among the largest markets with the highest consumer spending power and has a high proportion of newer iPhone models in use. This means that people in the U.S. can afford new devices and also upgrade much more frequently than in other markets. By contrast, Vietnam, in the lower left of the chart, has below average spending power and a larger proportion of older devices in its install base. Because the population cannot likely afford to upgrade devices more frequently, they hold on to iPhone 7 and older devices for much longer.

From our calculations, 63% of iPhones in use around the world are less than four years old (iPhone 8 or later models). For reference, we overlaid that average on the chart with a dashed gray vertical line. Countries to the right of the line replace their devices more frequently and overall have much newer phones. Those to the left of the line replace less frequently and have older devices, on average.

Statistically, we found a +0.8 correlation between spending power (household expenditure per capita) and the share of newer devices (a higher percent of iPhone 8 or later models). That is a very strong positive association, which means that the more spending power in a market, the newer the phones. This makes sense since a new iPhone requires a substantial investment and it explains why the United States and Hong Kong, both with a high household expenditure per capita, also have relatively low percentage of older iPhones in their respective markets.

Most of Apple’s smaller markets, represented by light red or gray dots, have low consumer spending power and a lower device replacement rate. This primarily includes most of Africa, as well as parts of Asia and Latin America. Consumers in these countries keep their iPhones for a longer period, likely due to having lower disposable income.

Some bigger iPhones markets such as Brazil, Russia, India and Indonesia have relatively low consumer spending power combined with a low device refresh rate. This means that a less expensive base version of the iPhone 12 can have a disproportionate impact on these key markets to get people to upgrade their iPhones sooner. This aligns with a previous report that Apple’s low-cost iPhones have helped Apple strengthen its footing in many international markets.

Using our calculation that 37% of global iPhones are four or more years old, and that there are an estimated 950 million active iPhones in the market, we estimate that 350 million iPhones are ripe for upgrade based on their age. This gives Apple a sizable addressable market with its iPhone 12 line. From various leaks, including from technology analyst Jon Prosser, Apple’s lowest priced model is speculated to start at $549 (with a rumored iPhone 12 4G). If this is the case, then Apple appears well positioned to drive upgrades from the older part of their install base. At the same time, with the highest end model speculated to retail for $1399 (iPhone 12 Pro Max), they would also cover off early adopters and loyalists in more affluent markets that want the latest and greatest Apple has to offer. By all accounts we predict a stronger than typical uptake of the iPhone 12 line compared to previous year’s launches. We’ll monitor early uptake of the iPhone 12 line when it becomes available and share those findings with you. Make sure you subscribe to the Flurry blog and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn for the latest reports on smartphone, app behavior, mobile development and other trends.

iPhone is a trademark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.

The Flurry blog (https://www.flurry.com/blog/) is an independent blog and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Apple Inc.

Apple Increases Sales Velocity with Lower Priced iPhones

Anonymous — Thu, 17 Sep 2020 16:37:31 +0000

Apple Increases Sales Velocity with Lower Priced iPhones

By: Lisa Moshfegh, Product Marketing, and Aman Bansal, Flurry Analyst

Anonymous Thu, 09/17/2020 - 09:37

2020-09-17

Tags

Apple

App Insights

In 2018, Apple announced they would no longer publicly share the number of iPhone devices sold each quarter. Instead, they would focus on quarterly revenue as a way to include their growing services and subscription business. In the two years since this announcement, Apple has expanded its services business to seven offerings, including Apple Fitness+ and Apple One announced earlier this week. With this new revenue stream layered on top of the iPhone, Apple has been reducing the minimum starting price for the iPhone to expand their footprint and sell more services. For this report, we analyzed the impact of Apple’s low price devices on iPhone sales worldwide.

Flurry Analytics, part of Verizon Media, is used in over 1 million mobile applications to provide aggregated insights across more than 2 billion active devices every month. We include only devices sold directly through Apple’s retail channels so as to exclude devices that are resold through secondary markets. Let’s first review new iPhone activations in the second quarter of 2020 when Apple launched the iPhone SE (2nd Generation).

In the chart above, we plot the percent of new device activations by week in the U.S. We focused on the U.S. market since the iPhone SE’s international launch was much more staggered and doesn’t provide as clear of a picture of cannibalization. During its launch week in the U.S., the iPhone SE captured 14% of all Apple iPhone sales. At the same time, Apple’s other lower priced iPhone 11 and iPhone XR models saw sales declines of 5 and 4 percentage points, respectively, very likely due to consumers choosing the iPhone SE. Apple’s higher priced models, the iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro Max, experienced only a slight dip during the iPhone SE launch week, and have since recovered their market share.

By all accounts, the iPhone SE launch was successful, accounting for 14% of Apple’s total sales during its launch week. It’s also noteworthy that this took place in a global pandemic. To understand whether their sales were incremental or cannibalizing the iPhone XR and iPhone 11, we took a look at growth outside the U.S.

In the chart above, we list the countries where Apple’s lower priced devices are growing the fastest. In August 2019, we consider the iPhone XR Apple’s only low-price device. And in August 2020, we consider the iPhone XR, iPhone 11, and iPhone SE as low-price devices. The blue bar represents the August 2019 share of sales of the iPhone XR. The gray bar represents the August 2020 share of sales of the iPhone XR, iPhone 11, and iPhone SE. For example, in Turkey during August of 2019, the iPhone XR made up 35% of all iPhones sold through Apple’s retail channels. One year later, in August 2020, the iPhone XR, iPhone 11 and iPhone SE combined accounted for 75% of all iPhones sold through Apple in Turkey. Countries are sorted in descending order of year-over-year growth shown by the embedded table on the right of the chart. A few observations stand out:

With the exception of Vietnam, more than two-thirds of all Apple August 2020 retail sales were generated from lower price devices.
The top 8 growing countries for low-price Apple devices are in Asia. Samsung and several Chinese smartphone manufacturers currently dominate in Asia, but Apple appears to be making strong gains with its lower-priced devices.
Several countries including India, Brazil, Mexico, and Russia have relatively low smartphone penetration, providing Apple an opportunity to increase share in emerging markets.

Now that we’ve shown that Apple’s low price devices are making up a larger share of Apple’s total sales in many international markets, let’s look at how low-priced devices may be increasing overall net Apple smartphone adoption.

In the chart above, we show the fastest growing iPhone countries, based on year-over-year iPhone sales through Apple retail channels. For reference we include the global growth rate in gray, at 8%. Growth has been strong, especially in certain Android dominated markets across Latin America and Asia. For example, Brazil and Turkey have both approximately doubled the number of iPhone sold with growth rates of 123% and 98%, respectively. And many of these countries still have relatively low smartphone penetration, which positions Apple to pick up share as adoption rates increase.

Based on the increased sales velocity of their low price devices, combined with an overall increase in total sales, Apple is driving growth through lower priced devices while maintaining high end device sales volume. However, the more Apple releases budget devices, the more it could diminish its perception as a luxury brand. The trade off between selling fewer, premium devices at high price points and aggressively driving growth at lower prices points will strain its brand positioning. Make sure you subscribe to the Flurry blog and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn to stay up-to-date on the latest smartphone adoption trends.

iPhone is a trademark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.

The Flurry blog (https://www.flurry.com/blog/) is an independent blog and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Apple Inc.

Apple and Samsung Jockey for Global Smartphone Dominance

Anonymous — Wed, 02 Sep 2020 17:35:42 +0000

Apple and Samsung Jockey for Global Smartphone Dominance

By: Lisa Moshfegh, Product Marketing, Flurry Analytics

Anonymous Wed, 09/02/2020 - 10:35

2020-09-02

Tags

Apple

Samsung

App Insights

Samsung and Apple dominate the smartphone industry globally. Combined, they control more than half the total market share on the planet. In most regions of the world, either Apple or Samsung is the top vendor. While Apple leads in its home market of North America, Samsung tends to lead elsewhere. In this report, Flurry looks at the global market share by active user base. While most market share analyses estimate device shipments or sales, Flurry directly measures what phones are in use today. As a result, our analysis shows market share based on active devices, or true install base, which we believe is a more meaningful view of market share.

Flurry Analytics is used in over 1 million mobile applications worldwide, providing aggregated insights from more than 2 billion mobile devices per month. For this analysis, we exclude the European Union and China due to insufficient data. However, external analyses show that Apple and Samsung are the top two vendors in Europe and that Apple is second in China, only behind Huawei. Let’s take a look at the world map of active devices, broken out by continent.

For each continent, we show the top two smartphone manufacturers based on their share of active devices. Scanning the mapping, you’ll notice that either Apple or Samsung leads on each continent, showing their strength as a duopoly. Aggregating market share based on the total map, Samsung has 33% of the market and Apple has 22%. Note again that this excludes data from China and the EU. Starting with North America, Apple makes up 38% of the active device base, followed by Samsung with 34%. In Asia (excluding China) and Australia, Apple and Samsung’s combined share totals 47% and 86%, respectively.

On continents where Samsung is the market leader, it tends to dominate. In Latin America, for example, Samsung leads Motorola by 36 percentage points. In Africa, Samsung leads Tecno by 16 percentage points. And in Asia, Samsung leads Apple by 13 percentage points. Apple, on the other hand, is the market leader in North America and Australia, two regions with higher income per capita, indicating that Apple appeals to users with more disposable income.

Outside of China, Tecno is the only Chinese manufacturer to earn one of the top two spots on any continent. In Africa, Tecno ranks second behind Samsung with a 14% share of active devices. Given Africa’s low smartphone penetration, Tecno could be well positioned to capture some of the continent’s forecasted growth in the years ahead. And it wouldn’t be the first time a Chinese manufacturer successfully took control of a foreign market because of their ability to manufacture quality smartphones at affordable price points. So we should not count Tecno, Huawei, Xiaomi or any other Chinese OEM out from successfully gaining share as the adoption rates rise in Africa and other emerging markets.

Apple could be well-positioned to gain share in several markets as they strongly appeal to a younger demographic, which means that their share will organically strengthen over time. For more insight into this trend, check out this Flurry report showing that those under 35 years of age strongly prefer iPhones. That said, Apple faces uphill battles in Latin America, Africa, and even parts of Asia. As of now, it appears that Samsung is well positioned to build on its existing lead. We’ll continue to monitor the active device share of top smartphone manufacturers. For the latest reports, subscribe to the Flurry blog and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn to get the latest industry analyses.

iPhone is a trademark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.

Flurry’s blog (flurry.com/blog) is an independent blog and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Apple Inc. or Samsung.

State of Mobile: COVID-19 Edition

Anonymous — Mon, 24 Aug 2020 19:29:52 +0000

State of Mobile: COVID-19 Edition

By: Lisa Moshfegh, Product Marketing, Flurry Analytics

Anonymous Mon, 08/24/2020 - 12:29

2020-08-24

Tags

App Insights

state of mobile

COVID-19 and the ensuing stay-at-home orders have caused mobile app usage to skyrocket. Consumers are looking to fill unexpected free time due to limited leisure activities and social distancing, meaning many of us are reaching for mobile devices to pass the time. Throughout the past few months, Flurry has investigated various shifts in user behavior due to the pandemic by looking at app usage across categories. For this report, we’ve compiled our recent findings into one document to demonstrate the cross-category impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We hope you’ll take a look.

Please find the slides here. And make sure you keep in touch on our blog, Twitter, or LinkedIn to stay up-to-date on our latest analyses.